Halloween costumes are back in storage, Election Day ballots have been counted and focus is shifting toward Thanksgiving.
In the NFL world, however, there still is time to rip off a few more disguises and cast a few more votes.
It’s time to play “Playoff Contender or Playoff Pretender” with 17 NFL teams whose seasons hang in the balance.
The seven division leaders with six or more victories (Chiefs, Dolphins, Eagles, 49ers, Jaguars, Lions, Ravens) were put aside as obvious contenders, and the eight teams with three or fewer victories (Bears, Cardinals, Giants, Packers, Panthers, Patriots, Rams, Titans) were counted as obvious pretenders.
Here is how Post Sports+ sees the rest of the league entering Week 11:
Contenders
Bengals (5-4): No team faces a more difficult remaining schedule (.653 opponents’ winning percentage), including six games against AFC opponents higher up the standings. The Bengals have scored touchdowns on five straight game-opening drives and forced multiple takeaways in five straight games. If the Bengals sneak in with a healthy Joe Burrow, they are every opponents’ worst nightmare.
Texans (5-4): Offensive Rookie of the Year favorite C.J. Stroud belongs in the MVP conversation. First-year coach DeMeco Ryans belongs in the Coach of the Year conversation. Stroud and the rise of the Texans from years of on-field incompetence and off-field embarrassments soon could be flexed into primetime broadcasts. The epitome of playing with nothing to lose.
Steelers (6-3): Plenty of warning signs exist: The Steelers have been outgained in all nine games and outscored by 26 cumulative points. The 2022 Vikings taught us that winning too many close games can be a sign of a fraud. What do these Steelers have that those Vikings (and most other teams) didn’t? A head coach as proficient at winning as Mike Tomlin.
Broncos (4-5): Russell Wilson is quietly resurrecting his career with 18 touchdown passes, four interceptions and a 104 quarterback rating. The stench of a 1-5 start to the Sean Payton era — including a 70-20 loss to the Dolphins — has cleared out. The defense was tracking as one of the worst ever through Week 5, but has undergone a complete turnaround (16.8 points per game allowed over the past four).
Vikings (6-4): Kirk Cousins’ torn Achilles on Oct. 9 hasn’t been the season-wrecker that Aaron Rodgers’ was to the Jets. Why? Because general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah sensed an NFC playoff spot up for grabs and acted fast to trade for then-Cardinals starter Josh Dobbs. Now the Vikings have the longest active winning streak (five games) in the league and a firm grip on the NFL’s last playoff spot.
Saints (5-5): Check the bylaws: The NFC South has to send a team to the playoffs (with a home game!). It might as well be the Saints, who face the easiest remaining schedule (.379 opponents’ winning percentage). If quarterback Derek Carr (shoulder, concussion) returns healthy, the Saints’ underachieving offense has enough sporadically good moments in it to beat the rest of a bad division to eight or nine wins.
Cowboys (6-3): The NFL is said to be unpredictable. The Cowboys defy that logic. With few exceptions, they beat up on inferior competition and fall just short against a step-up in class. Figure they are headed for their increasingly typical season of one or two playoff games, but you can also figure the NFC East will have a repeat champion (Eagles) for the first time since 2004.
Seahawks (6-3): Surprise, surprise! The Seahawks have the same record as the 49ers atop the NFC West with two meetings in short order (Week 12 and Week 14) on tap. Their trade deadline move for the Giants’ Leonard Williams suggested an all-in approach. No time to waste when head coach Pete Carroll is 72 years old.
Buccaneers (4-5): A four-game losing streak didn’t kill the Buccaneers because they won last week when the rest of the division lost. Baker Mayfield — yes, that Baker Mayfield — has the best quarterback numbers in the NFC South. The offensive line is too good for there not to be some improvement to the NFL’s worst rushing attack (3.4 yards per carry).
Pretenders
Bills (5-4): What began as a Super Bowl-or-bust season has devolved into a 31 percent chance to make the playoffs, according ESPN’s Football Power Index. Head coach Sean McDermott is running out of scapegoats after his latest coordinator switch, firing offensive play-caller Ken Dorsey. Unhappy receiver Stefon Diggs is symbolic of a team about to implode.
Jets (4-5): The post-bye-week schedule lightened up, but the Jets failed to take advantage by losing to the Chargers and Raiders. The stubbornness of leadership in refusing to try any quarterback other than the struggling Zach Wilson might keep Aaron Rodgers happy, but it’s wasting another season of great defense and probably will keep Rodgers from attempting his comeback because the playoff dream will be dead in December.
Browns (6-3): As historically bad as the Deshaun Watson trade has been — paying $90.8 million for 14 touchdown passes in 12 games so far — Watson at least offered balance to one of the NFL’s best defenses. Watson’s season-ending shoulder injury and the decision to start rookie Dorian Thompson-Robinson will be what stamps the Browns as the unfortunate last-place finisher in the fiercely competitive AFC North.
Raiders (5-5): Replacing fired head coach Josh McDaniels with Antonio Pierce injected life into the season. So did playing the Giants and Jets in back-to-back weeks. Are there any teams from this offense-starved area of the country for the Raiders to feast on next? Rutgers? The USFL’s New Jersey Generals? No. Then it’s back to reality against the Dolphins and Chiefs.
Colts (5-5): The Colts’ two best wins — at Houston and at Baltimore — suggest “contender.” But the Gardner Minshew-led offense is trending in the wrong direction with three touchdowns in the past two games, both victories. It’s remarkable to even be .500 at this point considering quarterback Anthony Richardson’s rookie season lasted four games, running back Jonathan Taylor held out and the secondary was gutted by injury.
Chargers (4-5): I will not be fooled by the Chargers’ talent. I will not be fooled by the Chargers’ talent. I will not be the Chargers’ talent. If I keep saying it, maybe I will avoid the same old annual pitfall of looking at this roster on paper and ignoring that this collection of players and coaches invent new ways to lose close games. Not a formula for sneaking into the playoffs.
Commanders (4-6): Did the Commanders act too rashly to sell pass rushers Chase Young and Montez Sweat for draft picks? They are just two games out of the last playoff spot and quarterback Sam Howell is exceeding expectations as a first-year starter. A classic case of misaligned timetables here: Head coach Ron Rivera needs to win to save his job, but the Commandeers are thinking long-term viability.
Falcons (4-6): Head coach Arthur Smith gives off vibes that he needs you to know he is the smartest person in the room. And yet his play-calling and usage of first-round pick Bijan Robinson at running back couldn’t be more head-scratching. In-season replacement quarterback Taylor Heinicke seems to have left his magic at his pre-free-agency home of Washington.
Who’s the boss?
Admit it: You’ve thought about what it would be like to become your boss’ boss.
The 9-to-5er’s daydream happened two weeks ago for Pierce, who was promoted to interim coach from linebackers coach after McDaniels was fired as head coach. Because the Raiders bypassed defensive coordinator Patrick Graham on the hierarchy, Pierce went from working as an assistant under Graham to calling the shots for all the coaches.
Doesn’t that create a strange dynamic?
One NFL assistant coach who has been part of a similar staff shake-up in his career explained to Post Sports+ that promoting a position coach actually is a way of limiting the amount of disruption to the organization as a whole.
If a coordinator is promoted in-season, he has less time to focus on game plans while adjusting to all the new off-field problem-solving duties that he has just been handed. In that case — especially if there is a chance of earning the full-time job — he is likely to dump schematic work onto position coaches, which introduces more variables and potentially mixed messages to players.
Pierce is off to a 2-0 start. Meanwhile, Graham, who turned down an interview for the Jets head coach vacancy in 2021 and interviewed for the Giants head coach vacancy in 2022 after his two-year run as Joe Judge’s defensive coordinator, waits his turn.
It’s getting hot in here …
The Raiders’ response to change — wins against the Giants and Jets — undoubtedly has other NFL owners wondering whether their team would get a similar spark.
Here is our six-coach hot-seat scale (1, lowest, to 10, highest):
Ron Rivera, Commanders (9): The writing is on the wall for Rivera after the season, following new owner Josh Harris’ arrival. With Howell unexpectedly surging, should the Commanders use the last month-plus of the season to get a read on offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy’s readiness for the job? Bieniemy has been on at least 16 head coach interviews without getting hired. The Commanders are on the playoff fringe, and Rivera’s inexplicable struggles against the Giants (2-4-1) can’t continue this week as 10.5-point favorites.
Brandon Staley, Chargers (8): The analytically driven Staley is the most obvious case where an argument could be made that a new voice might spark a playoff run. Most of the other teams with coaches on the hot seat are playing out the string. The Chargers have four one-score losses this season, continuing a disturbing three-year trend.
Matt Eberflus, Bears (8): A 6-21 record is bad. Quarterback Justin Fields’ lack of development is concerning. Bringing in an offensive-minded head coach to groom Fields’ likely successor next year is tantalizing. Losing two assistant coaches — David Walker and Alan Williams — to matters that reportedly required the attention of Human Resources, as Eberflus has this season, is embarrassing.
Frank Reich, Panthers (7): Coaches are fired after one season more often than you think. It’s just usually a first-timer (Nathaniel Hackett, Steve Wilks, David Culley, etc.) instead of someone with Reich’s résumé. But owner David Tepper is notoriously impatient. Rookie quarterback Bryce Young isn’t developing as fast as Stroud (Texans), and now Reich is waffling between giving up offensive play-calling duties and taking them back.
Bill Belichick, Patriots (5): It’s time for both parties to divorce. The only question is whether it is more respectful to allow Belichick to finish out the season or spare him another seven games of tarnish. If there weren’t financial implications from resigning, you wouldn’t put it past the curmudgeon to quit (maybe write it on a napkin?) just to make sure he has the final say. Will his one-time dream job (Giants) open up for a quick pivot?
Brian Daboll, Giants (3): That Daboll is even listed one year after winning NFL Coach of the Year speaks to the volatile nature of the league and the Giants’ own messy history. How can he not be under some fire when the Giants have fired three straight head coaches without allowing a regime to reach Year 3 and he is suffering blowout losses more frequently than all of them?
College football game to scout for NFL Draft purposes
No. 20 North Carolina at Clemson, Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET, ESPN
There are no College Football Playoff implications on the line here, but it is a chance to watch North Carolina’s Drake Maye — the consensus No. 2-ranked quarterback in the 2024 draft class behind USC’s Caleb Williams — compete against a defense littered with NFL prospects.
Assuming Maye follows the lead of other recent highly regarded quarterbacks whose college teams were not competing for a national title and decides to sit out a second-tier bowl game, Saturday could be his second-to-last college game.
“His game is polarizing,” ESPN NFL Draft analyst Matt Miller told Post Sports+. “He is 6-foot-4, 235 [pounds], big arm, very good mobility, strong and tough. But he’s going to leave a lot of plays on the field. He has to be more consistent with seeing it faster. His ball placement breaks down at times.
“That said, he doesn’t have great talent around him. At times, he has really elevated that program. He’s efficient. At times you expect more from him, especially early this season, but I think he’s gotten better the last couple weeks. If Drake was in last year’s [draft], it would’ve been a really interesting debate with Bryce Young and C.J. Stroud.”
Clemson has a handful of defensive prospects who could be top-100 picks: linebackers Jeremiah Trotter Jr. and Barrett Carter, cornerback Nate Wiggins, safety Andrew Mukuba and defensive lineman Ruke Orhorhoro.
Carter’s availability is unknown due to an ankle injury, and Wiggins is trying to get back on track after not starting the past two games because of a lack of accountability, including missing a tutoring session, according to head coach Dabo Swinney.
Trotter, whose father was a four-time Pro Bowl linebacker, has 20 pressures on 80 pass-rushing snaps, according to Pro Football Focus. What makes him a three-down option is matching up in coverage with running backs and tight ends and chasing down plays in pursuit.
Wiggins, who likely is Clemson’s top prospect, has allowed nine catches for 54 yards on 205 coverage snaps, per PFF. He quickly closes on the ball and creates disruption with long arms.