Brian Cashman said he wanted two outfield bats this offseason. One import must be a center fielder.
Jasson Dominguez is iffy to stay in center field, and he is going to miss the first half of the 2024 season, at minimum, after Tommy John surgery. The Yankees can’t really want to revisit Aaron Judge, who turns 32 in April, back in center after his significant toe injury last season. The starter at the moment would be Estevan Florial, whom the Yankees spent almost all of last season avoiding promoting to the majors.
The simplest solution is if the Yankees believe in Cody Bellinger. There are pretty much no questions defensively; he is a brilliant athlete and defender who is still just 28.
The concern is at the plate, which should have the Yankees worried about whether they are signing the positional version of Carlos Rodon.
From 2017-20, Rodon managed to make 41 starts with a 4.45 ERA, including a 5.74 ERA in 11 games (nine starts) in 2019-20. Then, in his two-year run-up to free agency, he had a 2.67 ERA in 55 starts. In 2021-22, Bellinger managed a 66 OPS-plus, the worst in the majors for anyone with at least 900 plate appearances. In his 2023 walk year, Bellinger had a 133 OPS-plus in 556 plate appearances.
Want to make the case he finally got healthy from a dislocated shoulder suffered in the 2020 NLCS, which allowed him to fix his swing and that he has just embarked on eight prime years? Sure. It is a case his agent Scott Boras is going to make, just like he did for Rodon coming off the lefty’s ages 28-29 seasons.
But there also is at least a one-in-three chance Bellinger is the hitting version of Rodon, and, thus, will be batting .211 with a 25 percent strikeout rate in June as the sound of regret echoes in The Bronx. The Yankees are not in the roster position to risk having both the hitting and pitching embodiments of Rodon.
So they would have to be sure. But unless they have changed their philosophy radically — and they haven’t — the Yankees rely heavily on items such as average exit velocity, barrel percentage and hard-hit percentage as a predictive tool for what comes next with a player.
Even while recording his 2023 rebound (.307 average/26 homers) with the Cubs, Bellinger ranked poorly in all three of those Yankees-approved categories: among 258 hitters that Baseball Savant lists as qualified, Bellinger was 200th in exit velocity, 172nd in barrel percentage and 232nd in hard-hit percentage. His numbers across the board in those areas looked similar to those of Harrison Bader.
Last November, the well-run Dodgers non-tendered Bellinger. This November, MLB Trade Rumors predicted Bellinger would receive a 12-year, $264 million pact. My guess is more in the eight years at $240 million realm. But you get the point. It is going to be quite a lot for any organization to wager that Bellinger will be his 2023 version for a while moving forward and not the 2021-22 type. The moment the Yankees should have jumped on Bellinger was last offseason, when he signed a one-year, $17.5 million pillow contract with the Cubs.
So where else can the Yankees turn for a center fielder?
I am from the reporting school of asking the question even when you think the likelihood is no comment. You never know without inquiring. You can always be surprised. I would have the same philosophy if I ran an MLB team: Ask before moving on to other choices.
So, if I ran the Yankees, would I call the Mets just to make sure they were not interested in trading the final seven years at $141.75 million of Brandon Nimmo’s contract for, say, three controllable players such as Michael King, Chase Hampton and Spencer Jones. Yes, yes, I would — especially since this will satisfy one of my weekly categories: “My totally made-up trade.”
While the Mets are prioritizing the future, I suspect Nimmo is part of that picture. Plus, the Mets are not punting on 2024, even if they are thinking big picture. And on the highly unlikely possibility that they would consider dealing Nimmo, there would be interest in him, which means the already teeny chances the New York clubs could make a trade all but vanishes.
The next call (and keep in mind the Yankees already may have done this groundwork) would be with the White Sox. At the GM Meetings, new White Sox GM Chris Getz said, “I don’t like our team,” adding that it is “not a well-rounded club.” That sounds like an executive ready for a massive overhaul. Some of that can be accomplished by trading the in-demand Dylan Cease with two years of control left.
But the real feeding frenzy would be if Luis Robert Jr. were made available. The White Sox may be able to net a return on par with the huge haul the Nationals received for Juan Soto. Soto was the better overall hitter, but had 2 ½ years of team control left and played a less premium position (corner outfield) poorly. Including his 2026-27 option years, Robert has four years at $67.5 million left, which puts him at a price point that any team could acquire. Plus, he is a terrific center fielder.
He strikes out too much (28.9 percent), but still hit 38 homers and had 20 steals and is just 26. The White Sox could decide he is a cornerstone for their rebuild and not move him. But the Yankees should be sure about that.
The same question should be asked of the Astros about Kyle Tucker. This is one I never would have thought of had an executive not recently mentioned to me a series of reasons why Houston should consider moving him.
The Astros have been to the ALCS seven straight seasons. They still have a roster that could challenge for a title in 2024, especially if Luis Garcia and Lance McCullers Jr. can return successfully to the rotation during the year and Jose Abreu’s late success is an indicator he got comfortable in Houston and is about to have a strong 2024.
But the Astros also have a fascinating near-future. They have kept winning even after letting integral players such as Carlos Correa and George Springer leave via free agency. But Jose Altuve and Alex Bregman are entering their walk years in 2024, and Tucker and Framber Valdez face walk years in 2025. The Astros also are no longer looked at as having a strong farm system, especially after trading Drew Gilbert and Ryan Clifford to the Mets for Justin Verlander. Houston owner Jim Crane has, to date, refused to do the kind of super-long, market-value contract that it likely will take to keep Bregman and Tucker, in particular.
So will Houston just keep everyone and try to win as much as possible with this core and let Bregman and Tucker leave in free agency? Or do they try to get in front of it? Could Tucker handle center field for, say, a year? Even if you don’t think he could, his lefty bat and all-around game should make him interesting to the Yankees and pretty much the whole industry.
Consider the position players who have recorded at least 5.0 Wins Above Replacement (Baseball Reference) in each of the past three seasons: Tucker, Soto, Jose Ramirez, Austin Riley and Marcus Semien. In that period, Tucker has 89 homers, 69 steals and has lowered his strikeout rate while raising his walk rate in each of those years.
Again, if this kind of player actually gets into the marketplace, the Yankees would hardly be in pole position to acquire him. But I wonder, if the Yankees (or any club) would be willing to take on the dubious remainder of McCullers’ contract (three years at $51 million) or Rafael Montero’s (two years at $23 million), would that make a trade more feasible? I wonder if a deal would be more likely if you substitute center fielder Chas McCormick for Tucker? For what it is worth, McCormick and McCullers’ negative value contract for Clarke Schmidt and Everson Pereira works on the simulator at baseballtradesvalues.com.
Ultimately, the chances of Nimmo, Robert Jr. or Tucker moving are not great. So what is more possible?
Free agent Kevin Kiermaier remains an elite defensive center fielder even at age 33. He runs the bases well, has a high motor and baseball IQ, and if he could produce against righty pitching as he did in 2023 (.751 OPS) while not being a giveaway vs. lefties (.708), he remains a highly useful player. Even if the Yankees do land someone such as Soto for the corner outfield, they should still also try to sign Kiermaier.
Michael A. Taylor bats righty, doesn’t hit for average and strikes out too much, but he defends well, plus has some power and speed. He also is a free agent.
I suspect Cincinnati’s TJ Friedl and Philadelphia’s Brandon Marsh are not in play, but the Yankees and Cardinals talked a lot at the deadline and St. Louis has potential center field alternatives such as Dylan Carlson, Tommy Edman and Lars Nootbaar. Furthermore, the Cardinals’ president of baseball operations, John Mozeliak, has said the team not only needs to add starting pitching, but wants to thin its positional/outfield surplus to clarify playing time. Yet, the Cardinals lefty bat I think fits the Yankees best is Brendan Donovan, who plays all over, but not in center field.
Mike Yastrzemski is better suited to the corner outfield than center, but he is a lefty bat with some power and an ability to draw a walk. The Giants are trying to add starting pitching — desperately. They probably would rather get out of the $18 million they owe Michael Conforto in 2024, but he is not a center fielder. Still, his lefty bat could become a consideration for the Yankees (and others) at some point.
Like Yastrzemski, Max Kepler is better suited as a corner outfielder. But he very much could be moved. Twins president of baseball operations Derek Falvey said at the GM Meetings that the loss of regional sports network money will mean that Minnesota will likely have a lower payroll in 2024 — there is expectation that it could be a $15 million reduction or more. There are not many places to make that trim, but Kepler is due $10 million in 2024.
But who is Kepler? He had his best season since 2019, but it was built on a .688 OPS first half and .926 second half.
Got my attention
The Yankees selected the contract of Carlos Narvaez last week. That means they now have five catchers on their 40-man roster — including Kyle Higashioka, Ben Rortvedt, Jose Trevino and Austin Wells. That is too many.
So I would not be surprised if the Yankees trade one or two, likely Higashioka and/or Rortvedt. And it would be no surprise if a deal came by Tuesday at 6 p.m. That is the deadline to put prospects onto the 40-man roster and protect them from being selected in the Rule 5 draft, which is Dec. 6 this year. All teams, including the Yankees, will want to open as many 40-man roster spots as they can to get their best prospects who are Rule 5 eligible onto the roster.
If players such as Higashioka and Rortvedt are not going to make it to spring training as Yankees, it might be incumbent on the Yankees to act now — though this is not an offseason in which the Yankees have a lot of prospect depth to add that is Rule 5 eligible.
Neither Higashioka nor Rortvedt has minor league options left. So either they are on the 26-man roster come the beginning of the season or they must be subjected to waivers. I would think the Yankees’ preferred catching tandem next season would be Trevino and Wells, but there is risk in that. Trevino underwent wrist surgery in July and did not play again in 2023. Wells is still mostly an unproven player with big questions about whether he can catch or not.
But Trevino was a 2022 All-Star with strong defensive skills who is a favorite of ace Gerrit Cole. Wells promises the kind of lefty might the Yankees have been lacking. The Yankees could begin next season with what they did in 2023 — Higashioka and Trevino as the major league tandem with Wells stashed in the minors. But that would still leave a lot of catchers on the 40-man roster. And it would not be giving Wells an opportunity he probably is due from the outset.
The Yankees can also just tender Higashioka and Rortvedt (the deadline to do so is Friday) and try to trade them some other time in the offseason, but that would leave the 40-man logjam going into the Rule 5 draft.
Rortvedt is not yet arbitration eligible, so it is not a lot of money for the Yankees to eat if they decide to tender him and release him later. Higashioka, who would be entering his walk year, likely will earn in the $2.5 million range if tendered. Remember, the Yankees can just non-tender both players by Tuesday late in the afternoon, making one, the other or both free agents.
Higashioka would probably be best used as a piece of a bigger trade because, by himself, his value is limited. But I do think he has value as a backup catcher with a bit of power, good framing skills and an excellent rep as a teammate.
Higashioka also has this weird statistical quirk — he is one of three players in MLB history to hit exactly 10 homers in three straight years, doing so in each of the past three seasons. The other two also were of the backup catcher ilk: Ed Herrmann from 1972-74 and Todd Greene from 2002-04.
Free-agent deep dive
This is another new category I have decided to do for this offseason, where I take a free agent who interests me and put him under the microscope.
This week, I am picking Gary Sanchez, who not that long ago looked like his career might be ebbing to a close. But now you may be able to see a player who sticks around a bit, if not as a starter then at least in a tandem. And that comes off of a season in which he played with three organizations — never getting out of the minors with the Giants, netting just seven plate appearances with the Mets and then becoming the Padres’ regular catcher until a hit-by-pitch on Sept. 6 fractured his right wrist and ended his season.
As long as teams feel like he will heal well from that injury, I suspect he will find guaranteed money in free agency and a 2024 job.
He turns 31 on Dec. 2, and though there are bad areas of his game, such as batting average and strikeouts, he does have power, can hit lefties well and — despite the reputation — can be viewed as an adequate or better catcher.
He had a 113 OPS-plus in 2023 mainly for the Padres, thanks largely to his .492 slugging percentage (along with a .217 average and .288 on-base percentage).
Over the past four seasons, he has hit exactly .200 in 1,356 plate appearances. The only players to bat as often with a lower batting average are Joey Gallo (.181 in 1,584 plate appearances) and Martin Maldonado (.186 in 1,377 plate appearances). Sanchez’s 28.6 percent strikeout rate in that time was 11th highest for his number of plate appearances.
His hard-hit percentage among catchers with at least 250 plate appearances, though, was intriguing: 1. Willson Contreras, 42.7. 2. Sanchez, 40.6. 3. Higashioka, 39.5. Sanchez also had a .984 OPS in just 79 plate appearances against lefty pitching.
The defensive metrics also like him. He was tied for seventh with Francisco Alvarez with seven Defensive Runs Saved, for example, and was plus-two in Framing Runs on Baseball Savant.
Sanchez never turned into the long-running star the Yankees once envisioned, but I wonder whether there is a second act for him now in his 30s with lower expectations in which he provides power and capable defense.
Roster stuff perhaps only I notice
The White Sox are just dreadful at developing pitching. That is why in the weekly countdown of which organizations have done the best at producing players, the White Sox are 27th.
Remember our weekly exercise — we are putting every player who appeared in 2023, 1,457 of them, back with the organization which they signed their first pro contract. Then we are making the best 26-man roster possible for each team, trying to construct it as much like an actual roster as possible by filling every position and having a backup catcher and a complete bullpen, etc.
The White Sox’s positional group is fine with some star-level players such as Fernando Tatis Jr., Marcus Semien and Luis Robert Jr. — three of the best players in the majors. The 2023 regression of Tim Anderson and Jose Abreu makes the overall group not as special as in recent seasons.
The White Sox did not know what they had in their possession when they traded Semien and Chris Bassitt to the A’s in Dec. 2014 for Jeff Samardzija, nor when they swapped Tatis in June 2016 to the Padres for James Shields. Since their White Sox exits, Semien has finished third in the AL MVP voting twice (and should finish in the top 10 again this year) while Tatis has a third- and fourth-place finish for the NL MVP. Tatis also won the NL Platinum Glove this year.
Now for the horrendous: The White Sox would be unable to form a real rotation with their original signs. Bassitt started 33 games in 2023, Chris Sale 20 and Carlos Rodon 14. The other starts from original White Sox were openers — three each by Tanner Banks and Ian Hamilton and one each by Carson Fulmer and Jimmy Lambert.
Sale was taken in the first round in 2010, Bassitt in the 16th round in 2011 and Rodon was the third overall pick in 2014. So since 2014, the White Sox have not drafted or signed internationally a pitcher who was a regular starter in 2023. In fact, the only international signing who pitched in the majors was Edgar Navarro, who had eight appearances and 8 ⅔ innings.
As for the relief pitching, Aarom Bummer appeared in 61 games, the only original White Sox to appear in more than 40. The Nationals were the only other organization to produce so few.
The atrocious feeder system is central to the White Sox making the playoffs just twice in the last 15 years.
Their best original team:
C: Seby Zavala
1B: Abreu
2B: Semien
SS: Anderson
3B: Jake Burger
LF: Alex Call
CF: Robert
RF: Tatis
DH: Andrew Vaughn
Bench: Nick Madrigal, Carlos Perez, Zach Remillard, Trayce Thompson
Rotation: Banks, Bassitt, Fulmer, Rodon, Sale
Closer: Hamilton
Bullpen: Bummer, Lambert, Garrett Crochet, Chris Devenski, Sammy Peralta, Lane Ramsey, Bennett Sousa
Last licks
The departure of Craig Counsell, mixed with the revelation that starter Brandon Woodruff will miss most, and possibly all, of next season due to a shoulder injury, led to the belief the Brewers will go into at least a reset if not a rebuild, including trading Corbin Burnes, who is due to be a free agent after the 2024 season.
Not so fast. Milwaukee may indeed trade Burnes because it recognizes the unlikelihood of keeping him long-term and wants to capitalize on a market craving pitchers as elite as Burnes. But the Brewers have several motivating factors to not just wave a white flag.
Owner Mark Attanasio has never authorized a sink-to-the-bottom strategy during his ownership. And he has reasons not to do so here. The Brewers are in roughly the eighth inning of receiving a substantial public funding package to renovate America Family Field, and the club does not want to antagonize the local populace by tearing down the roster. It is one reason Attanasio went beyond his comfort zone to offer Counsell a contract in the five-year, $27.5 million range.
Attanasio is said to be furious that a manager he gave his first MLB job not only spurned him, but stayed in the Brewers’ division by signing with their most hated rival, the Cubs, for five years at $40 million. This, too, will encourage Attanasio to try to outdo the Cubs with Counsell even more.
In addition, the Brewers believe strongly in their rising young players Sal Frelick, Garrett Mitchell, Brice Turang and Joey Wiemer. They think that positional group will be joined at some time in 2024 by outfielder Jackson Chourio (viewed as one of the majors’ best prospects), catcher Jeferson Quero and third baseman Tyler Black.
And the Brewers also have an internal conceit that they maximize the payroll provided by Attanasio and find parts that have helped them to the majors’ sixth-best record over the past seven seasons.
Counsell’s managing, though, was a big part of that. So was Woodruff, whose 137 ERA-plus during that period is the seventh-best for any pitcher with 100 starts. Woodruff was going into his walk year in 2024, so his tenure might be at an end unless the sides work out a multi-year deal that allows him to rehab in 2024.
Burnes and shortstop Willy Adames also are in their walk seasons. The expectation has been that the Brewers would be open to discussing them — and perhaps even elite closer Devin Williams — in trades.
But even if Milwaukee does major selling, perhaps they do some buying as well. Because the noise at the GM Meetings was this is not a team that wants to tank.