It’s never too early to begin looking at NBA player awards bets.
Ten games into the season, we have seen a few players jump ahead of the pack and become clear favorites to win awards.
Perhaps no award is more wide-open than this season’s NBA Sixth Man of the Year Award.
Tim Hardaway Jr. has jumped out to a sizable lead for the Dallas Mavericks as their primary scoring option off the bench.
The ex-Knick is as streaky as they come and can be considered very vulnerable to drop off as the season continues. Dallas’ schedule has also been a cakewalk in the early going, playing 12 games and ranking as the easiest schedule played in the NBA so far.
They have faced eight teams below .500 so far this year, with a combined record of 48-72 in the early going.
Whether Hardaway will be able to continue his career-best 40.2 percent 3-point shooting is the major question. But it’s a pretty good bet that once games get played against stiffer competition, his performance will drop off.
And there are two other candidates worth targeting in this market anyway.
| Player | PPG | AST. | REB | Net Rating | Points created per game | Plus/Minues |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Hardway Jr. (+450) | 18.7 | 1.7 | 3.9 | 2.1 | 23 | 1.6 |
| Immanuel Quickley (+550) | 15 | 3.8 | 3.4 | .5 | 21.7 | .5 |
| Chris Paul (+1000) | 8.8 | 7 | 3.8 | 5.6 | 28.1 | 3.4 |
| Austin Reaves (+1100) | 13.6 | 4.8 | 5.3 | 4.3 | 25.9 | 3.5 |
| Caris Levert (+1400) | 18.8 | 4.1 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 29.5 | 1.7 |
| Malik Monk (+1400) | 13.1 | 5.4 | 3 | -1.4 | 26.0 | .1 |
Caris Levert is playing very well for the Cavaliers, who have been a bitter disappointment so far.
Perhaps Levert has taken a step forward, but he has only played 65 games twice in nine seasons, the minimum needed to be eligible for awards.
His stat count is phenomenal on paper, but is it fools good?
It’s still early and there’s two candidates I prefer targeting here with excellent underlying stats.
The two leaders in Net Rating per NBA.com, Austin Reaves and Chris Paul are two very productive, positive players for their team.
And there’s reason to believe that both players will continue their strong play and even improve their counting stats.
Reaves is now coming off the bench as their sixth man and is now running their offense as the primary ball handler.
As a sixth man, in a small sample size of just four games, Reaves is averaging 14.5 PPG, 7.0 rebounds, 6.5 assists, and a 4.3 net rating.
This is a pace that might not sustain, but he’s dominating second-teamers in his new role.
As a starter, he averaged a still solid but less productive, 13.1 PPG, 4.4 rebounds, 4.0 assists, and a -7.9 net rating.
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If he’s this much better as their primary ball-handler running the show with the second team, Reaves probably runs away with the award.
As for Paul, his averaging seven assists per game is fantastic, but he’s averaging 15.9 potential assists per game, behind only Trae Young (8.1 assists per game) and Tyrese Haliburton (12.5 assists) and ahead of Luka Doncic (8.1 assists).
It’s not totally unrealistic to see Paul creep towards nine assists per game, with some better 3-point variance.
He is on pace for the record for assists per game by a bench player.
The advanced stats heavily favor Reaves and Paul, who are in an excellent position to improve their counting stats, a critically important part of winning awards.
These two are worth a bet at current numbers 10/1 for Paul and 14/1 for Reaves (DraftKings).