The Brooklyn Nets are playing decent ball.
They’re now 6-5 after back-to-back wins over the Wizards and Magic.
Even more impressive, they’re 9-1-1 against the spread (ATS) on the year, making them the most profitable team to bet on in the young season.
These scrappy Nets head to Miami on Thursday to battle a 7-4 Heat team working on a six-game win streak.
Surprisingly, Miami hasn’t lost since a Nov. 1 home game against the Nets.
So, will history repeat itself?
Or will the Heat avenge their last loss with their seventh consecutive victory?
Nets vs Heat prediction
(7:30 p.m. ET; YES Network/NBA TV)
While the Nets are playing good ball, they’re also dealing with injuries to two key players.
Ben Simmons is dealing with a hip injury and will likely be out for this game. While he’s only averaging 6.5 points per game in six games this season, Simmons is adding 11 rebounds and seven assists per game while being a plus defender.
Meanwhile, Cam Thomas has an ankle injury, keeping him off the court for a few weeks. While he’s only started eight games, he’s averaging a whopping 27 points per game.
The Nets’ current starting five isn’t bad, with Mikal Bridges and Spencer Dinwiddie putting up decent numbers. Their current group can win home games against the Wizards and Magic.
But beating Erik Spoelstra and the Heat in South Beach is tough without your best on the court.
Miami is missing Tyler Herro, who’s dealing with an ankle sprain, but I think the combined Simmons-Thomas production overshadows that. Besides, an injured Herro means more shots for Bam Adebayo and Jimmy Butler, which is never a bad thing.
In the prior matchup between these two, the Nets won by four partly because Thomas scored 13 while Simmons nabbed 11 boards and dished five assists.
Where will that production come from this time?
Plus, that win may have been a tad lucky. The Nets shot 45% from 3 in that game, making three more longballs than Miami despite attempting two fewer.
The website ShotQuality attempts to project game scores based on the “quality” of shots taken and allowed, as opposed to whether they went in. It’s an attempt to cut through the variance of this game.
The Nets won that game 109-105, but ShotQuality projected it as a 112-110 Heat win based on the quality of shots from each team.
Betting on the NBA?
- Check out the best NBA betting sites
- Read our guide on how to bet on basketball
- Get the latest NBA Championship odds
Some regression to the mean could be coming for both teams.
I also don’t love this matchup for Brooklyn.
The Heat aren’t a very efficient half-court offense. But they do try to score points in two ways.
First, they run pick-and-roll at the second-highest frequency in the league, per ShotQuality.
Second, they shoot plenty in the mid-range, as no NBA team takes a higher percentage of their shots from the mid-range than Miami (36.9%).
Meanwhile, by ShotQuality’s numbers, the Nets are the second-worst NBA team at defending the pick-and-roll (1.00 PPP allowed) and about league-average at defending mid-range shots (.85 PPP allowed).
Ultimately, I don’t think Brooklyn can post a second, somewhat lucky road win over a solid Heat team while missing two of its better players. And I expect the matchup issues to show in this one.
So, I’ll lay the points with the Heat as short-home favorites Thursday. Miami’s already taking sharp money, pushing the line higher and higher, but I feel comfortable laying four or better.
Nets vs. Heat Pick
Heat -2.5 (-110) at Caesars | Play to -4 (-110)