Saturday’s college football slate is loaded with elite matchups.
But there’s only one matchup between two top-10 CFP-ranked teams, as No. 9 Ole Miss travels to Athens, Georgia, to battle No. 2 Georgia.
Surprisingly, these two SEC foes haven’t played each other since 2016. This is the first meeting between head coaches Kirby Smart and Lane Kiffin, who were on Nick Saban’s staff together at Alabama in 2014 and 2015.
Georgia has essentially locked up a trip to the SEC Championship game, given the Bulldogs are 2.5 games up on Tennessee and Missouri with three games to play while holding a head-to-head tiebreak over Mizzou.
However, Ole Miss could still win the SEC West. The (conference) 5-1 Rebels need the 6-0 Crimson Tide to drop two games, given Alabama won the head-to-head matchup, which is unlikely but possible.
From a handicapping perspective, Ole Miss is catching double digits on the spread, an enticing number considering Georgia is 1-7 ATS as a favorite this season.
Yet, I’d rather target the total, as I expect a high-scoring, flashy game.
Ole Miss vs Georgia prediction
Georgia is a defense-first football team. Right?
The Bulldogs always have been.
Not this year. The story of the 2023 Bulldogs is their offense.
The Bulldogs rank seventh nationally in EPA per Play and 10th in Success Rate, scoring around 40 points per game.
They’ve dominated in standard downs but have been even better in passing downs, with Carson Beck settling in as QB1 in Athens.
Beck has snuck up to seventh among qualified FBS quarterbacks in Pro Football Focus’s passing grades and eighth in total EPA.
He’s eclipsed 300 passing yards in four of his past six games and has tossed 12 touchdowns to three interceptions across those contests.
Even with superstar tight end Brock Bowers sidelined, Beck, alongside wide receivers Ladd McConkey and Dominic Lovett, should take advantage of a middling Ole Miss defense.
Kiffin’s teams have never been excellent defensively. Instead, they lean on a quick-twitch, explosive offense.
It’s the same formula this season, with the Rebels ranking in the top 15 nationally in Explosiveness and middle-of-the-pack in most defensive metrics.
Ole Miss grades out decently in EPA per Dropback allowed, especially in SEC play, but that’s mostly because they’ve picked off a conference-high nine passes during conference play.
Beck has a 1.5% turnover-worthy play rate, so I don’t expect him to fall into that trap.
Also, the Rebels run a lot of Cover-3 and Cover-4 underneath first-year defensive coordinator Paul Golding, who spent the past five years as Alabama’s DC.
Unfortunately for Golding, Beck shreds those looks. Among FBS quarterbacks with at least 100 passing attempts against Cover-3 and Quarters, Beck has the third-most EPA, seventh-highest completion rate, third-most yards per attempt, and second-most passing yards against the looks.
So, I suspect Georgia slices and dices Ole Miss through the air on Saturday.
Meanwhile, I suspect Ole Miss can move the ball on Georgia.
Georgia’s defense has been elite against the pass this season but vulnerable against the rush. The Bulldogs rank sub-80th nationally in EPA per Rush allowed.
They rank 10th among SEC teams in EPA per Rush allowed in conference play and ninth in yards per carry allowed (5.2).
Georgia’s tackling is an issue, which is odd for a Kirby Smart-coached team. The Bulldogs are ninth in the SEC in missed plus broken tackle rate (11.8%), with 22 in 139 attempts.
Because the Bulldogs are missing tackles, they’re allowing opposing backs to reach the second and third levels of the defense. Georgia ranks 77th nationally in Rush Explosviness allowed.
Enter Quinshon Judkins, Ole Miss’s superstar running back.
Ole Miss’s offensive line is experienced, yet the unit hasn’t played like a Joe Moore candidate, ranking 93rd in Line Yards.
Luckily, Judkins doesn’t need big holes to gain big yards. Among running backs with at least 40 attempts this season, Judkins is 10th in missed tackles force (46) and 15th in yards after contact (586).
He has the highest broken plus missed tackle rate among SEC running backs in conference play (28%).
Judkins is quick, elusive, and tough. He’s as good an all-around running back as you’ll see. He’ll force his way into the second and third levels of the defense in various ways.
Judkins has rushed for over 100 yards in four of his past five games, averaging over five yards per carry during the stretch.
Georgia’s pass defense is legit, probably the best in the SEC. However, if Judkins can move the ball on the ground, that would set up Kiffin’s ever-dangerous play-action passing game.
Only Oklahoma’s Dillon Gabriel has amassed more play-action passing yards among FBS passers than Rebels quarterback Jaxson Dart (1,391).
Dart averages over 11 yards per attempt on those throws, recording nine big-time throws to only one turnover-worthy play on 131 play-action dropbacks.
Dart’s completion percentage jumps 3.5 points on play-action passes, and he averages 2.7 more yards per attempt.
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Dart’s play-action game is one of the biggest reasons Ole Miss ranks top-15 nationally in EPA per Pass, Pass Success Rate and Pass Explosiveness. Kiffin dials up play-action on almost half his passing plays (45.8%).
While Georgia’s secondary is sure to give Dart fits at times, there’s a clear and easy path to points for the Rebels: Get Judkins running downhill and get Dart easy play-action throws.
Considering the schematic matchup, I bet we’ll see fireworks on Saturday night in Athens.
The analytics agree. Our Action Network power ratings project this total above 67, while Jeff Sagarin’s power ratings project it above 60.
Either way, we’re getting good value with the Over 58 available at Caesars Sportsbook.
I wouldn’t be surprised to see 70 points in this game.
Ole Miss vs Georgia pick
Over 58 (-110) | Play to 60 (-110)