It’s tough to go on the road for a noon kick after back-to-back physical home games against ranked teams. But that’s the spot Alabama finds itself in on Saturday.
That’s a tough spot. So, I’m willing to fade the Tide and take the points with the ’Cats as home ’dogs.
Schematically, this is an excellent matchup for Kentucky’s defense.
Alabama’s ground and short passing attack is inconsistent at best and horrific at worst, so the Tide have been mediocre in Standard Downs.
Luckily, Jalen Milroe is among the nation’s best downfield passers, and he adds tons of value as a rusher, so he’s saved the Tide in Passing Downs this year.
Unfortunately for Milroe’s Tide, Mark Stoops’ zone-heavy defensive scheme excels at preventing Explosive plays and containing mobile quarterbacks.
Kentucky ranks 11th nationally in Passing Explosiveness allowed and has held its five opposing mobile quarterbacks to 186 yards on 40 rushes combined (excluding sacks).
The Wildcats are vulnerable in the field’s short and middle parts, but Milroe and Alabama aren’t efficient at attacking that area.
I’m unsure how Kentucky scores against Alabama’s defense, as the offense is still severely limited. But the defense was built in a lab to stop this version of the Tide, so I suspect the Wildcats can muck this game up enough to stay within single digits, especially considering the tough situational spot for Alabama.
The pick: Kentucky +10.5.
Arizona (-10) over COLORADO
Why isn’t anybody talking about Arizona?! The Wildcats are 6-3. All three losses have been by one possession, and two came against top-10 teams.
Since suffering back-to-back one-possession losses against top-10 teams (Washington and USC), Arizona has slaughtered three straight ranked teams, beating Washington State, Oregon State and UCLA by a combined score of 98-40.
Arizona is an FBS-best 8-1 against the spread this season. The Wildcats are a wagon.
Since backup quarterback Noah Fifita took over for the injured Jayden de Laura, he has thrown for more than 1,500 yards with 14 touchdowns to only four interceptions. He’s not doing too much, simply hitting his two dangerous wide receivers, Jacob Cowing and Tetairoa McMillan, in stride.
At the same time, Arizona has snuck up to fourth nationally in Rush Success Rate. This well-balanced, dangerous top-10 offense should destroy Colorado’s pathetic defense.
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Against the pass, the Buffaloes are 109th in EPA per play allowed and 126th in Success Rate allowed. Against the run, the Buffaloes are 104th in EPA per play allowed and 108th in Success Rate allowed.
Usually, Colorado’s electric, up-tempo passing offense can keep the Buffs in games. But Deion Sanders’ decision to replace offensive coordinator Sean Lewis with Pat Shurmur ends those dreams; the former longtime NFL coach is a considerable downgrade.
This is a monster mismatch, and the ever-undervalued Wildcats surely will make the ever-overvalued Buffaloes pay.
Last week: 1-1. Iowa State (L), Arizona (W)
2023 season: 13-15.